Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the almost lengthy conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Brenda Rodriguez
Brenda Rodriguez

A seasoned blackjack strategist with over a decade of experience in casino gaming and player education.