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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.